January 749 CE Sabbatical Year Earthquakes - Talking Mule Quake
A series of closely related Byzantine Greek and Latin chronicles,
including
Paul the Deacon,
Anastasius Bibliothecarius,
Theophanes,
Nikephoros I of Constantinople,
Georgius Monachus,
George Cedrenus,
and
Michael Glycas, describe a destructive earthquake in
Syria accompanied by ground deformation in
Mesopotamia (aka Jazira).
Although the chroniclers differ in wording and detail, they
agree on several distinctive geological phenomena. The ground
in Mesopotamia reportedly split open to form an extensive
earth fissure, estimated at approximately 2,000 feet by
Paul the Deacon,
Anastasius Bibliothecarius,
Theophanes,
and
George Cedrenus,
whereas
Georgius Monachus
increases the reported length to 3,000 feet. Several authors
also describe white sandy material being ejected from the
fissure. This description is consistent with
liquefaction and
sand boils produced by earthquake-induced expulsion of
water-saturated sediment. Such observations are among
the most geologically credible elements of the tradition and
suggest strong ground shaking in
unconsolidated deposits.
Most versions of the account then describe an event in which a white mule, or in one account an
onager,
emerged from the earth fissure and spoke prophecy in a human
voice. Talking animals, divinely inspired prophecies, and
other miraculous portents are not uncommon in Byzantine
historiography, where earthquakes were frequently interpreted
as manifestations of divine judgment. While the animal itself
is best regarded as a literary or theological embellishment,
its prophecy may preserve a genuine chronological clue. In
most versions the animal foretells that a people from the
desert or a foreign nation would overthrow the Arabs, a
prediction the chroniclers state was subsequently
fulfilled.
If this prophecy refers to the
Abbasid Revolution,
it would allude to the overthrow of the Arab
Umayyad Caliphate
by the
Abbasids, a
multi-ethnic movement whose military strength was drawn
largely from
Khurasan in the
east. Although the Abbasid campaign began earlier, the
decisive defeat of
Marwan II at the
Battle of the Zab
occurred on 25 January 750 CE, after which organized Umayyad
rule collapsed and the conquest of Syria rapidly followed. If
the prophecy indeed reflects this historical event, it
provides a
terminus post quem
shortly after 25 January 750 CE for this January 749 CE
earthquake, suggesting that the prophetic episode was either
added to, or reshaped within, the narrative after the Abbasid
victory. Whether this prophetic tradition originated soon
after the earthquake or was incorporated by later chroniclers
cannot be determined with certainty.
The reported ejection of white sandy material from the earth
fissures is consistent with liquefaction and the formation of
sand boils during strong ground shaking. Using a chart (Fig. 9)
from
Obermeier (1996), the
observed liquefaction suggests
Peak Horizontal Ground Acceleration (PGA)
values of approximately 0.2–0.5 g, corresponding to
Intensity (I)
= 6.7–8.2 using the transform of
Wald et al. (1999). This
is consistent with the minimum intensity of VII assigned to
liquefaction and sand injection features by the Earthquake
Archaeological Effects scale of
Rodríguez-Pascua et al.
(2013).