January 749 CE Sabbatical Year Earthquakes - Holy Desert Quake North
The Holy Desert Quake North appears to have had an epicentral region
in or near the Sea of Galilee but was felt at considerable distances.
One particularly useful distant observation comes from
Pseudo-Dionysius of Tell-Mahre,
a contemporaneous source who describes a tremor experienced at
Mabbug (Manbij) during the night.
Pseudo-Dionysius states that during the tremor "something like the
noise of a roaring bull was heard from a great distance." The
following morning, the inhabitants assembled for prayers in a church
outside the city. A second, much stronger earthquake then occurred
and collapsed the Church of the Mother of God, killing the people
gathered inside along with their bishop. This second destructive
event at Mabbug is interpreted as a separate earthquake, the
Talking Mule Quake, whereas the weaker nighttime tremor is
interpreted as the distant effects of the Holy Desert Quake North
(Williams, 2024).
The nighttime tremor at Mabbug is consistent with approximately
Intensity IV–V shaking: sufficiently strong to awaken or alarm
inhabitants and to be clearly perceived, but without reported
structural damage. Although Mabbug lies approximately 450 km from
the proposed Sea of Galilee epicentral region, the report of a
distant roaring sound does not preclude such a source. As discussed
by Williams (2024), earthquake-generated
sound can be perceived at substantial distances and its propagation
depends on earthquake magnitude, ground motion, local geology,
topography, and atmospheric conditions. Using the empirical
earthquake-perceptibility relationship of
Tosi et al. (2012),
Williams (2024: footnote 29) estimated that approximately 21% of
the population at Mabbug might perceive an earthquake of magnitude
~7 at a distance of ~450 km, while noting that this relationship,
which was derived from substantially smaller earthquakes, probably
underestimates perceptibility for an earthquake of M ≥ 7. Thus,
Pseudo-Dionysius' description of a nighttime tremor accompanied by
a distant roaring sound is physically plausible for a large
earthquake originating near the Sea of Galilee.
The distinction between the two earthquakes described by
Pseudo-Dionysius is particularly important for unraveling the
chronology of the Sabbatical Year earthquake sequence.
Pseudo-Dionysius preserves a clear relative sequence of events:
first, a comparatively weak tremor was felt at Mabbug during the
night; then, after daylight arrived and the inhabitants had gathered
for prayer in response to that earthquake, a second and much
stronger earthquake struck and collapsed the church. The two events
therefore cannot represent different descriptions of the same
earthquake. They were separate shocks, with the first occurring at
night and the destructive Mabbug earthquake occurring the following
morning.
Williams (2024) used this
night-to-morning sequence as an important chronological constraint.
The first, nighttime earthquake is interpreted as the Holy Desert
Quake North, whose strongest known effects were concentrated around
the Sea of Galilee, while the following morning earthquake is
interpreted as the Talking Mule Quake, whose reported destructive
effects extend through northern Syria and Mesopotamia. The much
weaker shaking at Mabbug during the nighttime event is consistent
with a distant Sea of Galilee source, whereas the catastrophic
collapse at Mabbug the following morning is consistent with the
source of the Talking Mule Quake being substantially closer to
northern Syria.
This relative chronology creates a problem with the dates preserved
in the Byzantine chronographic tradition. Byzantine authors such as
Theophanes
place the earthquake in Palestine, the Jordan Valley, and Syria on
18 January and associate it with the fourth hour (of daylight - i.e. about 10 am). Other Byzantine
accounts place the destructive Syrian earthquake associated with
the Talking Mule tradition in a different regnal year of
Constantine V (r. 741-775 CE). These dates have commonly encouraged the various
reports to be separated by considerably longer intervals (years) or,
alternatively, combined into a single geographically enormous
earthquake. Pseudo-Dionysius' account provides a rare independent
constraint showing instead that two major earthquakes were separated
by only a matter of hours: one during the night and another the
following morning.
Williams (2024) therefore proposed that the absolute chronology
preserved in the Byzantine accounts became corrupted during
transmission and that the dates or chronological associations of
the two earthquakes were effectively transposed. In this
interpretation, the Byzantine tradition retained genuine information
about both earthquakes but attached some of the chronological
information to the wrong event. The Holy Desert Quake North would
be the earthquake experienced at Mabbug during the night, while the
Talking Mule Quake would be the destructive earthquake that struck
Mabbug the following morning. This reconstruction preserves the
relative chronology supplied by
Pseudo-Dionysius.