Herzog (2002) attributed observed damage at Tel Arad during the Hellenistic Period to a strong earthquake in the mid–3rd century BCE. Apparent seismic damage was reported in the southern and eastern wings of the fortress and in two cisterns where roof collapse was observed. The dating of this debris-filled depression and elsewhere, where the depression was damage is based on Hellenistic pottery shards recovered from a presumed to have been created by the earthquake, as well as on late Hellenistic structures built atop this depression and elsewhere. These structures were dated by the presence of toothed chisel marks.

Herzog (2002:76) also cited similar damage at nearby sites as evidence for a seismic origin. He observed that "the water system of Arad is a unique example of a water storage system combined with a postern for emergency use" and suggested that "an earthquake apparently caused the collapse of the Arad water system as well as other systems in the south." According to Herzog, excavations at Masada and Qumran produced evidence that "earthquakes occurred during the 2nd and 1st centuries BCE (Karcz and Kafri 1978)" and that "during that same period, the water system at Tel Beersheba was also destroyed." He argued that the dates from these sites are "supported by the late Hellenistic sherds found amid the debris in depressions [at Arad] created as a result of the collapse," adding that "the same episode probably also caused the collapse of the well in the lower city."