Margalioth (1960)
hypothesized that the Hebrew word translated as
in wrath
in the
23 Shvat fasting prayer
found in the
Cairo Geniza prayer book
might conceal a numerical code revealing the year of the
earthquake. Using one of the common
Gematria ciphers,
Margalioth calculated the value of
in wrath
as 679. Because the name
Raʾash Sheviʿit indicates that the earthquake
occurred in a Sabbatical Year and 679 is evenly divisible by
seven, this number would qualify as a Sabbatical (seventh)
year.
The next challenge was to determine the base year used for
the Hebrew calendar in the mid-eighth century CE. Following
the destruction of the Second Temple in 70 CE, the Hebrew
calendar counted years from that date. If one adds 70 to
679, the result is 749 CE — precisely the year when
23 Shvat and 18 January coincide.
However, a complication arises: by the early tenth century
CE, the reckoning of the Hebrew calendar was reformed into
the system still used today
(
Stern, 2012: 334–335). In
this modern system, 70 CE is no longer the starting point,
and 749 CE is not a Sabbatical Year. How the calendar was
calculated in the mid-eighth century before this reform
remains uncertain.
Nevertheless, the excerpt cited by
Karcz (2004) appears to
assume a 70 CE starting date —
since the destruction of Jerusalem to the date it
happened in the Land of Israel, the count of
‘in wrath’
. Thus, the main uncertainty lies not
in the chronology itself, but in whether the Gematria coding
was genuinely embedded in the prayer and which cipher was
intended.